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KOMPAS.com/Isna Rifka Sri Rahayu
Coordinating Ministry Of Economy Projected Economic Growth At 5.05 Percent In The 3rd Quarter Of 2024
Thursday, 07 Nov 2024
Economic Affairs Coordinating Minister Airlangga Hartarto has estimated that Indonesia's economic growth for the third quarter of 2024 will hover around 5.05 percent, matching the growth seen in the second quarter of the same year. The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) is set to unveil the GDP figures for this quarter later today, November 4, 2024.
Airlangga mentioned during a meeting in Jakarta on Monday that the economic growth for this quarter is expected to align with the previous one. However, he didn't specify whether the growth could surpass the 5 percent mark when asked.
Josua Pardede, the Chief Economist at Bank Permata, predicts that the growth for the third quarter might be a tad lower, estimating it at 5.02 percent year-on-year. He noted that this is a slight dip from the 5.05 percent recorded in the previous quarter.
Household consumption continues to be a key driver of economic growth during this time, with expectations of a 5.03 percent year-on-year increase. This is an improvement over the 4.93 percent seen in the second quarter of 2024, although it falls short of the 5.05 percent recorded in the third quarter of 2023. The rise in household consumption is supported by various indicators, such as:
• Retail sales at the end of Q3 2024 saw a solid year-on-year jump of 4.7 percent. This is a big leap from the 2.72 percent growth we saw in Q2 2024 and way up from the 1.48 percent increase in Q3 2023.
• Consumer Confidence Index also showed a good vibe at the close of Q3 2024, with about a 1.5 percent rise compared to the last quarter, which had dropped by 2.98 percent year-on-year.
Strong consumer spending is backed by a trend of falling supply-side inflation, especially in areas with fluctuating prices and those controlled by the government. At the same time, core inflation is projected to rise, hitting 2.09 percent year-on-year by the end of Q3 2024, he noted.
